Introduction

This course provides a detailed overview of geopolitical risks in the oil and gas sector, covering factors that influence supply, demand, and prices. Participants will learn to identify and assess risks, develop mitigation strategies, and make informed decisions amid political instability, regulatory changes, and international relations shifts.

Objectives

• Understand the fundamentals of geopolitical risk in the oil and gas sector.
• Learn about the impacts of political instability, regulatory shifts, and trade policies.
• Develop insights into managing risks related to sanctions, conflicts, and market volatility.
• Explore tools for geopolitical analysis and scenario planning.
• Analyze future trends in global politics that may affect energy markets.

Who Should Attend?

This course is ideal for:

• Oil and gas strategists, analysts, and business development professionals.
• Policy makers, regulatory professionals, and risk managers.
• Environmental specialists focused on sustainability amid geopolitical risks.
• Recent graduates interested in geopolitics, energy markets, and strategic planning.

Course Outline

Day 1: Fundamentals of Geopolitical Risk in Oil and Gas

• Introduction to Geopolitical Risk in Energy
  • Overview of geopolitical risk concepts and their relevance in oil and gas
  • Key players in global oil markets: OPEC, IEA, national oil companies
• Global Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics
  • Factors affecting global supply and demand: demographics, technology, policy
  • Overview of major oil-producing and importing countries
• Impact of Geopolitics on Oil and Gas Pricing
  • Role of geopolitical events in price fluctuations and market stability
  • Historical case studies of geopolitical impacts on pricing and supply

Day 2: Political Instability and Market Volatility

• Political Risks in Key Oil-Producing Regions
  • Overview of risks in the Middle East, Russia, Venezuela, and Africa
  • Techniques for analyzing regional stability and political tensions
• Trade Policies and Sanctions in Oil and Gas
  • Implications of trade restrictions and sanctions on oil and gas operations
  • Case studies on sanctions: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela
• Regulatory Risks and Energy Transition Policies
  • Impact of regulatory changes on oil and gas, including climate policies
  • Navigating shifts in government policies, subsidies, and tax regimes

Day 3: Tools for Geopolitical Analysis and Scenario Planning

• Risk Assessment Frameworks for Geopolitics
  • Overview of risk assessment frameworks: PESTLE, SWOT, and Porter’s Five Forces
  • Techniques for assessing political, economic, and regulatory risks
• Scenario Planning for Geopolitical Events
  • Role of scenario planning in risk preparedness and strategic decision-making
  • Building resilience strategies for potential geopolitical disruptions
• Data Sources and Intelligence for Geopolitical Analysis
  • Key data sources: government reports, think tanks, and media analysis
  • Techniques for filtering and analyzing geopolitical data for decision-making

Day 4: Mitigating Geopolitical Risks and Ensuring Continuity

• Strategic Planning and Risk Mitigation
  • Techniques for hedging, diversifying supply, and managing risk exposure
  • Overview of supply chain management and strategic partnerships
• Crisis Management and Contingency Planning
  • Developing contingency plans for conflicts, trade disruptions, and sanctions
  • Best practices for ensuring business continuity amid geopolitical crises
• Stakeholder Engagement and Communication
  • Techniques for engaging governments, regulatory bodies, and communities
  • Best practices for transparency, communication, and stakeholder management

Day 5: Case Studies and Future of Geopolitical Risk in Oil and Gas

• Case Studies in Geopolitical Risk Management
  • Analysis of companies’ responses to geopolitical events and market shocks
  • Lessons learned from successful mitigation strategies and policy adaptations
• Future of Geopolitics and Energy Markets
  • Trends in global politics, including resource nationalism and energy independence
  • Exploring the impact of the energy transition on geopolitical risk
• Final Project: Geopolitical Risk Analysis and Mitigation Strategy
  • Participants develop a geopolitical risk analysis and mitigation plan for a hypothetical oil and gas company operating in a high-risk region
• Preparing for Future Geopolitical Challenges
  • Techniques for building adaptability and resilience in changing political landscapes
  • Role of innovation, partnerships, and strategic foresight in managing risk